This summer, however, he is arguably wasting time and maneuvering himself into a corner, from which the only escape will be jumping into another The United States needed Russian support to conclude the Iranian nuclear deal. It was a year ago last Friday July 17 that the Boeing Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of lives.
The shock of that tragedy awakened Europe and the wider global Baev, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Baev noted that at several crucial points in Russia was a party Having spent a week lining up at ATMs, Greeks grasped the reality of the coming Western leaders focus on measures for containing Russia, expecting that the These attempts at curtailing the flow of information and persecuting the disseminators of politically undesirable news including bloggers might appear old-fashioned and inspired by Soviet-era KGB practices, which are held dear by Putin and his henchmen.
They are, nevertheless, more effective than the spread of Internet-based social networks would suggest—and Now that the fanfare and fireworks have fallen silent, this momentum may dissipate—and Putin, who has made himself into the central figure in militarized Reflections on the horrible The words that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for describing the nuclear angle of the special operation for seizing and annexing Crimea in March , might appear so odd that it is well-nigh impossible to make sense of them.
While Iran appears to be recognizing the need to reform its domestic politics and change its attitude toward the West, Russia is turning into a massively corrupt police state and is apparently thriving in the atmosphere of confrontation. The contrast between these two regimes has become strikingly sharp as nuclear While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity.
His recent poorly camouflaged and worse explained And his murder has cut away multiple layers of Yet, as the battle for Debaltseve has drawn to its predictable end, the opposing Russia connects with Turkey seeking opportunities in the Middle East. Violent conflicts in the Middle East gained new momentum in , and the forceful multilateral efforts to contain them yielded far from satisfactory results. Both Russia and Turkey have remained aloof from these efforts, and often oppose US-led endeavors but It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue.
Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe PACE. Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week January 22 has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
On the other hand, it has been a welcome return to the path of victory for many in Russia who consume or Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev Last weekend November 21 , Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the EuroMaidan—the public protests in Kyiv that lasted through the hard winter of discontent and brought down the corrupt regime of Viktor Yanukovych on February As its war for state survival continues to rage, the country is in no In a case of striking symbolism, President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if seeking reassurance against the specter of a mass public uprising.
The dismantling of that icon of the Cold War signified a breakthrough in finally achieving In the past-but-still-present Soviet times, leading newspaper proudly carried a set of awards — like the Order of the Red Star — on their front pages. I can just imagine the fiercely independent Novaya gazeta sporting the Nobel medal on its banner just above the usual political cartoon — as Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess.
This time The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk collectively known as the Donbas region have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are figuring out how to now move forward.
In his first days, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has shown the ability Just 75 years ago, the devastating war arrived to Europe — and this brave Polish cavalry perished fighting tanks. These days tanks are again rolling — and Europe needs to find a way to stop them. With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative.
If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have disillusioned him—assuming his subordinates actually informed him about it. The most dramatic turn in the protracted Ukrainian calamity last week was the decision of President Petro Poroshenko to end the ceasefire and resume the offensive against separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Poroshenko had every reason to conclude that the cessation of combat operations plays into rebel hands, The big picture of the Ukrainian conflict has changed significantly during the last week as this troubled state confirmed its hard-made European choice.
The hundreds of rebels fighting in the trenches around Slavyansk and the hundreds of thousands of civilians, who are trying to make sense out of the violent Pavel K.
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Baev, Pavel K. DOI: Reference Review , Security Dialogue 29 3 : — Review Essay , Journal of Peace Research 33 3 : — Monograph Baev, Pavel K.
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Book Chapter Baev, Pavel K. New York: Routledge 48— London: Routledge — Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation 75— London: Routledge 75— Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation — Paris: Dunod — Enders Wimbush, ed. Cornell, ed. New York: Palgrave Macmillan 71— Yerevan: The Caucasus Institute — Rome: Reset DoC 98— London: Bloomsbury — London: Palgrave Macmillan Pivot 69— London: Ashgate — Atlantic Council 78— New York: Springer 85— London: Palgrave Macmillan 62— Pollack, ed.
Washington, DC: Brookings Institution — Warsaw: Collegium Civitas Press 67— Herd, ed. London: — Amsterdam: IOS Press — Ottawa: University of Ottawa Press 17— London: Centre for European Reform 83— Oslo: 99— London: 1— Manchester: — Abingdon: — Washington: — Washington, DC:.
Stockholm: Test 37— New York: — London: 99— Stockholm: — Oslo: 55— Paris: 41— London: 75— Kingston: 37— Seoul: — Carlisle Barracks, PA: — Sandhurst : 5— Oslo: — Oslo: 53— Oslo: 77— Boulder, CO: Westview Press 67— A final site selection for this radar was announced in June At the same time, more involved preparatory and survey work began on the presumed future site of the U. X-band radar in the Czech Republic. From the beginning of discussions between the two countries, the United States was interested in deploying ballistic missile defense systems in order to counter the North Korean and Iranian ballistic missile threats.
Hosting a U. Iran and North Korea were not seen as credible threats by the Czech public, which dismissed as unrealistic the idea that an Iranian or North Korean ballistic missile would land on the Prague Castle or on some other target in Europe. At the beginning, the Czech government did not emphasize the political value of hosting a U. The United States understood Czech political concerns but did not share them. Then the Obama Administration cancelled a plan to place an X-band radar on Czech territory in as part of a broader realignment of U.
The Czech government tried to leverage the promise of funding for infrastructure improvements and economic opportunities as a way to obtain the cooperation and support of the many small villages in the vicinity of where the X-band radar would be built. The Czech government used the promise of economic assistance as both a carrot and a stick.
For example, in the summer of , the Czech government approved the lowest amount of infrastructure development money of all the villages in the region for Trokavec village, where the mayor was one of the most outspoken opponents of hosting a U. X-band radar. The Czech government also tried to leverage the radar issue to increase opportunities for high-tech defense cooperation with the United States.
Despite U. Focusing only on dollar contributions omits important ways in which smaller allies can contribute to allied security. It is true that had the United States not developed a missile defense system and an X-band radar, there would be nothing to negotiate about. The Czech economy is too small to support comprehensive ballistic missile defense research and development efforts.
That was an important contribution of its own and one that cannot be measured by dollar figures.source link
Svante E. Cornell
Public reports about initial ballistic missile defense discussions between the Czech Republic and the United States were limited to a few basic news stories. The issue did not attract significant attention outside of a small Czech expert community. This was partly due to the secrecy with which successive Czech Social Democratic Party-led governments approached these discussions between and Even those involved in these initial discussions could hardly imagine how important the topic was to become for Czech foreign and defense policy just a few years later.
By the summer of , U. That knowledge prompted the founding of the No Bases Initiative, a civic movement aimed at protesting any potential U. It also led to more intense public discussions about the extent of potential Czech involvement in U. The Czech government missed an opportunity to effectively participate in these discussions. Even as official negotiations proceeded apace after January , the Czech government, this time led by the Civic Democratic Party, lacked a competent orchestrated and sustained public relations campaign that would inform the general public and counter misperceptions surrounding the issue.
Complex national security issues do not lend themselves to easy Twitter-length explanations. This case illustrates the difficulties that democratic governments face when they publicly discuss complex technical issues that the public often does not fully understand and highlights the importance of general education on these difficult matters before they become prominent in the news. Throughout the negotiations, the perception of U. The Czech government was not hyper sensitive to the level of public opposition. If it was, it would not have participated in negotiations with the United States at all or would have ceased all cooperative efforts sooner.
The domestic opposition to a U.
Generally, as a consequence of 40 years of Soviet occupation, Czechs are rather skeptical of any sort of foreign military presence on their territory. The increased visibility of U. Understanding the strength of the ruling coalition supporting the government was just as important as whether the government as a whole supported U. The Czech government hoped to improve the negative perception by framing U. This confusion made it even more difficult for the Czech government to counter negative public reaction and the Russia-inspired misinformation campaign surrounding the issue.